Brent in 2025 Q1:Rekon outperforms EIA's forecast

In January, Rekon presented its 2025 forecast for Brent crude prices. At the time, geopolitical uncertainty loomed large, and markets were already on edge about possible policy shifts due to the Trump presidency. Yet the extent of the new administration’s tariffs were not known by anyone at the time. On January 28th, we published our projections, anticipating a notable drop in oil prices through the first quarter of the year and compared it against the forecast of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) projections, which was released earlier on January 10th.

Rekon vs. EIA

Rekon forecasted that Brent would start the year at around $79 per barrel in January, then undergo a sharp correction, sliding to $71 by March.

The EIA, on the other hand, offered a more conservative view: they foresaw Brent prices at $77 in January, softening only slightly to $76 in both February and March.

Now that Q1 data is in, here’s what actually happened:

• January: $78.3

• February: $74.9

• March: $71.5

The precision of our forecast for January was of course by no means extraordinary, given that we did our calculations at the end of January.  Yet for the rest of the quarter our projection not only captured the direction and magnitude of the trend more accurately, but also the general shape of the price path. An early-year peak was followed by a steady decline.

In our post in January we highlighted the importance of a dynamic forecasting approach. It is one that evolves in real time as new data and developments unfold. This philosophy is embedded in Rekon’s own forecasting tool, EnRekon, which is available to our clients. It empowers users to generate weekly, data-driven forecasts that adapt automatically to major economic and geopolitical changes.

If you're curious about our most up-to-date projections for Brent, TTF, electricity, or key industrial commodities, do not hesitate to contact us. We’d be happy to offer a demo and show you how our tools can support your decision-making in today’s volatile market environment.